So what to buy next?



I often meet people who when they find out I do a bit of writing on watches say "I nearly bought a Daytona 5 years ago" 




That's awesome dude, 


I nearly …


Except I didn't because... Well I just didn’t. nor did I get anywhere near doing so. 


So it's essentially a dream sequence.


What I'm getting at is there are lots of stories of people nearly buying a Rolex which has since shot up in value, due to the piece being discontinued or being under serious demand.


In a market where you can wait over 5+ years for a steel watch, Ones eyes are forced to turn from the obvious choices.


Given that the general consensus is that; as opposed to making more pieces, Rolex are probably going to cut production to bring their brand positioning closer to that of Patek Philippe or Audemars Piguet, with presumably Increased prices, allowing Tudor to take the place held by Rolex say ten years ago. 


So yes, this article is somewhat speculative… Let's talk about what is next on the list for a spike in market value and or what may have an effect.


It's been a number of years since the Submariner has had an update, and with the somewhat reminiscent design choices Rolex have thrown into the mix with such as the red line on the sea dweller, the light dusting of an off black brown finish on black sports model dials and even the smaller case size on the Tudor black bay 58, I have an feeling we are on the cusp of a fairly major design change or even new reference for the Submariner.


Whether that be a reduced case size, an updated movement or even an introduction of a Gilt dial. This I don't think will happen next year as they ruffled enough feathers with the BLNR this year they won't want to rock the boat again. But certainly post 2020, either way we will see a significant increase in the value of the 116610 LN.


Of course, the Hulk is already commanding very high prices for a watch still in production, and when (not if…) it is discontinued, you will be looking at £20k+ possibly more, unless a green dial and bezel alternative is released.


One in particular which has caught my eye and is probably the most undervalued Rolex sports model is the Explorer II 16570, in steel oyster case, GMT function and oyster bracelet with a black dial. It would seem the only thing that separates one from its inflated siblings would be the steel bezel insert as opposed to the new ceramic or earlier aluminium bezels.


Given that they have been steadily on the rise since 2014 in terms of price trading at around £3000, and now trading at closer to £6k on the secondary market I speculate we may see a rush for the last under-priced sports model. I wouldn’t be surprised if in the next 12 months they begin to trade toward the region of £10,000. Especially as the newer models (ref 216570) have been produced at 42mm to make up for their predecessors seemingly small case size caused by the steel bezel.


It would seem Rolex are slipping away into a realm of being that little bit more inaccessible.

Get em' while you can.

Words by Tom Heap








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